Vote of no confidence marks dramatic shift in Tory attitude to Boris Johnson

Analysis: Even if the PM survives on Monday evening his plummet from grace has been extraordinary

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In just 12 hours on Sunday, the mood appeared to shift dramatically in Boris Johnson’s camp. Days earlier, cabinet ministers had been confidently predicting no vote would be held – even briefing names of some of the prime minister’s staunchest critics who they hoped to win round.

Even on the Sunday morning shows, the transport secretary, Grant Shapps, who was Johnson’s “numbers man” running sophisticated spreadsheets to track backers for his leadership campaign, said he did not expect that vote.

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